2018 Oscar Predictions

With a few hours to go before the biggest film ceremony of the year (just slightly ahead of the Razzies) the stars are getting ready at their homes to leave for the red carpet. For a selected bunch, they will have the opportunity to take away the biggest accolade in cinematic history. But who will the lucky few be? Who will be this years Moonlight, Casey Affleck or Emma Stone??
These are the cinema club’s predictions based purely on the films we have seen and those that we have not and with no film critic experience!
Below are our selective predictions:

Actress in a Supporting Role
  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
This category is the one where we have seen the least films so cannot give a subjective or very strong reasoning for the likely winner. However, after going to see I, Tonya the other evening, we would struggle to think that anyone else in this list that produced a stronger performance than Allison Janney. Her cruel and cold turn as Tonya Harding’s mother, sprinkled with comedic quips, was engaging and captured every scene. Margot Robbie was fantastic but was simply dwarfed by Janney when she was present.
Likely to win: Alison Janney
Cinema Club’s pick: Alison Janney

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

Unlike our first prediction, we have had the pleasure of seeing all these films to make a more informative decision. While the bookies favourite will be Sam Rockwell and rightfully so, the performance that most captured us was Plummer’s in All the Money in the World. Sometimes it is easy to be great in a great movie as Rockwell has done. However, it is something more impressive to be great in a pretty average film. Plummer steals every scene and without him, the movie would have barely passed as a suitable TV movie.
Likely to win: Sam Rockwell
Cinema Club’s pick: Christopher Plummer

Original Screenplay
An extremely strong category and so refreshing to see so many original ideas. While we would love to see The Big Sick produce an absolute shock and take home the award for being a heartwarming and comedic take on cancer, we struggle to see the Academy plump for them. This is a close one for us between Get Out and Three Billboards….. just based on how smart and quick the people in this small town could respond to each other, we will just go with Three Billboards. Don’t worry Get Out fans, we have bigger plans for you.
Likely to win: Three Billboards
Cinema Club’s pick: Three Billboards

Actor in a Leading Role
  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
To be honest, none of these performances wowed us and it is not one we will spend much time on. We would love young English actor Daniel Kaluuya take it home but we think veteran English actor Gary Oldman will take it for a lifetime achievement to acting!
Likely to win: Gary Oldman
Cinema Club’s pick: Gary Oldman

Actress in a Leading Role
A far stronger nomination list than the men and far better performances. Streep was actually the weakest performance to be nominated (which is not to say she did not perform well) however Sally Hawkins, despite not speaking for the majority of the movie, was simply superb. Margot Robbie was brilliant in painting a sad depiction of Tonya Harding’s skating career. The strong favourite with the bookies is Frances McDormand so they must be right, right? She portrays the aggrieved strong mother to a tee so maybe we should choose her…..
Likely to win: Frances McDormand
Cinema Club’s pick: Sally Hawkins

Directing
  • Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele, Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
  • Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
A tough one. Very tough. But a lot easier when we eliminated all the options bar Del Toro and Peele. Both have a vision for their film and stick true too it. As a piece of art, Shape of Water is a modern day fable in film form and the colours and the sets and everything point to him winning. However there is a part of me that cannot move past Peele. The clues he leaves, the idea of creating such a harrowing scenario is unlike anything we have seen. A tough one indeed….
Likely to win: Del Toro
Cinema Club’s pick: Peele

Best Picture
Last but not least, Best Picture. We won’t bother putting out the list of nominees as there should only be one winner. Since we saw the film for the first time, We have seen it several more and it’s impact has not diminished.
For us, as a film, as an original idea, for the performances, for the music, for everything, the winner of this year’s Best Picture should be, GET OUT.
Likely to win: Three Billboards

Cinema Club’s pick: Get Out


Let us know your thoughts and if you agree and good luck staying up for the show!!!

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